Updated: October 2, 2026. Investors have spent much of 2026 worrying about higher interest rates, energy shocks and geopolitical disruption. Robeco’s latest five-year outlook flips that anxiety into a different question: what if the same forces making the world economy less efficient also create the next large investment cycle?

In its Expected Returns 2027–2031 report, Robeco calls the shift “The Great Rewiring.” The basic idea is easy to understand. Companies and governments are moving away from systems built purely for low cost and maximum efficiency, and toward systems designed to survive disruption. Supply chains are being duplicated, energy infrastructure is being rebuilt, AI is changing capital spending, and countries are reconsidering where critical goods are produced.

For investors searching for Robeco’s 2027–2031 market outlook, the headline is that the asset manager currently sees the highest five-year annualized return potential in equities—especially emerging-market stocks—followed by developed-market equities and listed real estate. That is a forecast, not a guarantee, but it gives a useful framework for understanding why stocks can still look attractive even in a world of higher bond yields.

Key takeaways

  • Robeco expects the global economy to move from “just-in-time” efficiency to “just-in-case” resilience.
  • The firm says trade, capital and production are all being rewired by geopolitics, energy security and AI.
  • Its base-case expected annualized return is around 8% for emerging-market equities and 7% for developed-market equities, measured in euros.
  • Listed real estate is also projected near 7% in the base case.
  • The report includes bull and bear scenarios, including the risk that AI investment disappoints while inflation stays structurally high.
  • The outlook should be read as a long-term scenario framework, not as a short-term trading signal.

What does Robeco mean by the “Great Rewiring”?

For years, globalization rewarded businesses that minimized inventory, concentrated manufacturing and relied on tightly optimized logistics. That model worked well when trade routes were dependable and financing was cheap. The last several years have exposed the downside: one blocked shipping route, conflict or supplier disruption can ripple through an entire industry.

Robeco says the next phase is about resilience. Governments want more energy security. Manufacturers want alternative suppliers. Technology companies need huge amounts of compute, electricity and data-center capacity. Strategic industries are attracting new subsidies and local investment.

That shift creates costs—duplicate factories and larger inventories are not free—but it also creates spending. Infrastructure, semiconductors, power grids, automation, logistics and industrial capacity all require capital.

Why could equities outperform in Robeco’s 2027–2031 outlook?

The central argument is that companies are the part of the economy most capable of adapting to the rewiring. Businesses can change suppliers, automate processes, raise productivity and redirect investment. If AI and infrastructure spending generate real productivity gains, corporate earnings could benefit over several years.

Robeco’s published base case places emerging-market equities at the top of its expected-return table, followed by developed-market stocks and listed real estate. The firm notes that valuations and country selection matter, particularly in emerging markets where economic structures differ widely.

This is also why the outlook is more nuanced than “stocks are cheap, therefore buy.” The expected return comes with more volatility and with meaningful macro risks.

Why emerging-market equities stand out

Emerging markets can benefit from several parts of the rewiring at once. Some economies are gaining manufacturing capacity as companies diversify supply chains. Others are central to critical minerals, electronics, energy infrastructure or fast-growing domestic consumption.

But “emerging markets” is not one trade. Countries with stable policy, productive investment and improving corporate governance may look very different from markets facing persistent inflation, currency stress or political instability. Robeco explicitly emphasizes selectivity.

How do higher interest rates change the picture?

Higher bond yields make equities work harder. When government bonds offer attractive yields, investors do not need to accept the same level of equity risk they did during the ultra-low-rate era. That raises the hurdle rate for expensive stocks and long-duration growth companies.

BCC’s recent explainer on the Federal Reserve’s 2026 rate hike and global market impact shows why this matters. Rising yields can compress valuations even while company earnings remain healthy.

The opposite is also true: if companies deliver stronger earnings and productivity, equities can absorb higher rates better than many investors expect.

AI is a productivity story—and a capital-spending story

AI sits at the center of Robeco’s thesis because it can affect both sides of the equation. In the short run, building AI infrastructure is expensive. Data centers, chips, networking equipment and power capacity require massive investment. In the longer run, the payoff depends on whether companies turn that spending into better productivity and profits.

That uncertainty is already visible in markets. Our analysis of the 2026 Nikkei technology sell-off showed how quickly AI optimism can reverse when investors question valuations or the pace of returns.

What are the biggest risks to the bullish equity case?

1. AI spending fails to produce enough productivity

If companies spend heavily on AI but the economic benefits arrive slowly, valuations could come under pressure. Robeco’s bear scenario explicitly considers a breakdown in the AI investment boom.

2. Inflation stays structurally high

Supply-chain duplication, defense spending, energy investment and geopolitical fragmentation can all be inflationary. Persistently high inflation would keep borrowing costs elevated.

3. Trade fragmentation goes too far

Resilience is useful, but severe fragmentation can reduce global productivity. BCC’s guide to how geopolitical alliances affect economic growth explains the trade-off between strategic security and economic efficiency.

4. Energy shocks disrupt the transition

A sustained oil or gas shock can raise business costs and consumer inflation simultaneously, making the policy response much harder.

What should investors take from Robeco’s forecast?

The useful part of a five-year outlook is not the exact percentage point. No asset manager can know precisely what equities will return several years from now. The value is in identifying the forces that could shape returns.

Robeco’s framework says investors should expect a world with more capital expenditure, more strategic redundancy, more energy investment and more competition over technology infrastructure. In that environment, companies able to convert investment into earnings may have an advantage.

It also argues against judging the next five years using the assumptions of the previous decade. Cheap globalization and near-zero interest rates are no longer the only reference points.

Frequently asked questions

What is Robeco’s Expected Returns 2027–2031 report?

It is Robeco’s five-year capital-market outlook covering major asset classes, macroeconomic scenarios and themes affecting investment returns.

Why does Robeco call the outlook “The Great Rewiring”?

The phrase describes a shift in global trade, capital and production as economies prioritize resilience, energy security and technology capacity over pure efficiency.

Which asset class has the highest expected return in Robeco’s base case?

Emerging-market equities are shown with the highest expected five-year annualized return in the published base case, followed by developed-market equities and listed real estate.

Does this mean equities will definitely outperform?

No. Expected-return forecasts are scenario-based estimates. Actual returns can be materially different, especially if inflation, geopolitics, AI investment or economic growth diverge from the assumptions.

Sources and further reading

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Expected returns are not guarantees of future performance.

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